The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, simply known as the United Kingdom or Great Britain or simply Britain or whatever you might like to call it. However, in this article I will use a different name to refer this kingdom. Let’s do this in a British style sentence. “I shall call this kingdom, the Hung kingdom.”
Now most of the well informed readers might guess the word “Hung” I used might refer to the recent hung parliament formed in Britain. Well, they have guessed correct, but the term “the Hung Kingdom” does not only refers to the hung parliament in Britain. It actually goes beyond that. So lets get into the details and explore this Hung Kingdom.
The Shocking Snap Elections And The DUP
The United Kingdom had actually turned into the Hung Kingdom, when Theresa May announced the snap elections in her speech, in April this year. However, officially the United Kingdom was converted into the Hung Kingdom on 8 June 2017. The date when the snap elections were held. The conservatives who had thought of having an enormous majority in the parliament. Actually, lost their existing majority and had to form a coalition with the DUP.
The Democratic Unionist Party or simply DUP. Is a regional political party based in Northern Ireland. A party not loved by the left. Since they are against abortions, same sex marriages, supporters of creationism and other things the left does not like. However, the left ranting against the DUP is not the concern. Since many English people are still today, conservatives. The real concern related with DUP is their links with terrorists groups such as the Loyalists.
The Loyalists or the Loyalist Volunteer Force is a small Ulster paramilitary group in Northern Ireland. It is a protestant group which is against the Catholics generally but consider the Republic of Ireland (especially the IRA) a bigger enemy due to the events occurred during the Northern Ireland Conflict (or The Troubles). They oppose the Irish Republic and support Northern Ireland being part of Britain.
Moreover, they are linked to a bigger organization, the Ulster Defense Authority or simply UDA, is the largest Ulster loyalist group in Northern Ireland. This is a designated terrorist organization in the United Kingdom. The UDA along with other Ulster loyalist groups. Is responsible for almost 260 killings, according to the Conflict Archive on the Internet (CIAN). Among the killed, 80% are civilians.
So the most interesting part is that DUP has direct support from the UDA. During the recent UK snap elections. The UDA openly endorsed three DUP candidates and encouraged their own supporters to vote for them. The three candidates endorsed by the UDA were Nigel Dodds, Gavin Robinson and Emma Little-Pengelly. Despite the support from Ulster loyalist type groups. The DUP has denied any links with such kind of paramilitary groups.
So now you might have some idea that with whom the conservative party under Theresa May have formed a coalition with. I hope now you can also better understand that what I mean when I say the Hung Kingdom but wait there is still plenty more to come.
Crazy Brexit Negotiations and A Double-Dip Recession Threat
If you think the Hung Kingdom is all about the hung parliament formed due to Theresa May’s shocking snap elections. Which eventually led the ruling party to form a coalition with a protestant conservative party which has links with crazy ultra nationalist groups. Then you have underestimated the Hung Kingdom, this kingdom has plenty to offer when it comes to different types of crisis.
Apart from the political crisis in the country. An old crisis, the 2008 global financial crisis, is still continuing. It has been nine years, since the year 2008 and the country has still not yet fully recovered from that crisis. The previous unresolved financial crisis and instead of a decent economic recovery, the country is headed back to another recession. This scenario is leading to a double-dip recession.
Moreover, last year Brexit has triggered a new economic uncertainty. Well the interesting part is Brexit itself is not the reason of this economic uncertainty. The undefined Brexit negotiations between the European Union and theHung Kingdom, is the reason of this economic uncertainty situation.
The people of Britain or shall I say the English have decided to leave the European Union. Since the English community has voted with a massive majority in favor of Brexit. Where as, people from other regions such as the Scottish have voted against the Brexit referendum. Anyways, The people might have decided what they want, but sadly the politicians of the Hung Kingdom still can not decide what they want.
The minority (or hung) government has told the people of Britain that they will leave, but one question still they can not answer. How will Britain leave the European Union? To answer this question the Brexit negotiations begun. However, the officials of the European Union in Brussels, have now entered the state of boredom. Since the European officials end up killing flies during the Brexit negotiations because the majority of the time the British are absent and even if they do appear on the negotiating table, their officials are with no significant representations. The European Union officials have even requested the British to please negotiate with them, since they can not negotiate with themselves alone.
The political elite of the Hung Kingdom is extremely divided on how to leave the European Union. The Conservatives, Labour, DUP, Liberal Democrats, UKIP and every other political party have a different opinion on the departure of Britain from the European Union. Since the British could still not figure out a proposal, the European Union officials decided to get out of this boredom by themselves alone. The European Union eventually triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and finally on 30 March 2019, The Hung Kingdom will leave the European Union. Well, even after an official announcement of the date of departure from the European Union. The great and genius politicians of the Hung Kingdom have still not figured out the process in which they will leave the European Union.
Well these crazy unbelievably still on going Brexit negotiations have increased the economic uncertainty in the country. Let’s come back to the double-dip recession now, which I mentioned earlier. The economic stats are turning into a real crisis. UK’s public debt of GDP has increased to 89.3%. In 2016 the GDP per capita has fallen to $40,093, which was $46,484 in 2014. The decent economic growth of 3.1% in 2014 has fallen to 1.8% in 2016. The projected growth rate of Britain this year is to further drop 1.6% and in 2018 it will be down to 1.3% (source).
Well, in 2014 Britain was expected to be on the path of an economic revival, but now it seems to be on the path of another financial crisis under the title of the Hung Kingdom. After a recession if an economy in its recovery phase instead of bouncing back. Dips into another recession, is called a double-dip recession and this is the economic faith the Hung Kingdom is rushing towards.
The Social Crisis
By now you can understand that the great Hung Kingdom has already brought both political and economic crises. However, there is still another crisis left, which the Hung Kingdom has to offer, the social crisis. Sectarian conflicts between the Christian community and the Muslim community is on the rise. Furthermore, due to DUP’s rise to power, many seem to fear a come back of catholic and protestant tensions in Britain. Moreover, the recent clashes between the liberals and the conservatives on the political front can also cause civil unrest. The recent Grenfell Tower fire has opened a class a debate in the kingdom. As many of the residents of the Grenfell Tower belonged to the middle or lower class income earners. As the safety regulations were not implemented fully on the tower and there were also later corruption allegations on the management of Grenfell Tower.
The recent growing acid attacks in Britain by unknown groups have already become an epidemic in the country. In 2016 more than 450 acid attacks were conducted, the majority of the victims being Muslims. These acid attacks on Muslims shows how day by day life is getting difficult for them in the horrific Hung Kingdom. Colin Horner, a member of the UDA and an activist in Northern Ireland was shot dead in March this year. Many think it is because of the internal feud within the UDA. This indicates, since DUP is now a part of the government. Hence, the UDA is on the rise and this means the once stopped killings are coming back.
In the post Brexit era. Britain has a hung parliament, a chance of a revival of old tensions in Northern Ireland, continuing economic crisis, growing acid attacks on a selective community, independence aspirations growing in the Scottish public, the rise of the far right, also the rise of the far left and still no proper plan made to leave the European Union. In short, the Hung Kingdom is headed towards a complete disaster.
However, despite all these horrific facts the most startling fact is that in this moment of turmoil, Theresa May is the prime minister of the Hung Kingdom. If you do manage to create a glimmer of hope for Britain, it soon fades away the moment you realize a hypocrite politician like Theresa May is leading the nation.
Finally, I would like to say that if this minority government remains till 2019 (the official year of Brexit). Then I can only dedicate the song “London bridge is falling down ” to the British. The most tragic part is even if the British get rid of this prime minister and the current minority government. There is no guarantee that the kingdom will be saved. Britain once an unchallenged superpower. Once held a colony in every continent of the world. The birthplace of the Industrial Revolution and many philosophies. A center of knowledge and education. The country which made the west a powerhouse it is today. However, now in 2017, Britain is reduced to just a Hung Kingdom.
I would like to conclude this article referring to an old joke about London becoming a city-state. Well if you look what has become of Britain today. The great Hung Kingdom can turn that joke into reality.
We should be careful about condemning an organisation (political party, corporation or even an individual) because of who happens to like them. It may not be their fault or properly reflect their intentions.
Many countries in the world have not recovered fully from the financial crisis a decade ago, the UK has done a lot better than some. When the next crisis strikes it is unlikely that the UK will be worst affected. Others who are vulnerable include China, Japan, Russia, USA, Italy and the EU itself after the ECB has purchased so many worthless state bonds.
The UK comprises four main countries: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Both Wales and England voted to leave the EU. I guess you are being careless rather than deliberately misleading in stating that only the English are Eurosceptic.
A huge majority of MPs voted to hold a referendum and then voted to trigger Article 50 in order to respect the result and leave the EU. About 84% of MPs were elected in 2017 representing parties whose manifestos promised, if elected to government, to implement the leave decision. The UK Government sent a letter to the EU triggering Article 50, you assert it was the other way around. Please check your sources.
Contrary to your assertion the EU has appointed a Chief Negotiator and given him a “mandate” not to negotiate. He has three non-negotiable demands, none of which could be agreed by any but a totally supine Government without knowing what the deal would be beyond that set of road blocks.
For more than two decades the UK has averaged higher growth than the EU, including since the vote to leave. Of course there are ups and downs, and there are severe problems facing the EU plus extreme ones facing some of its constituent nations. You have no right to assume that the UK is either uniquely vulnerable nor even more so than a lot of the others, no one knows what or where the next crisis is going to be.
There are problems between Muslims and others in several European countries and they don’t appear to be worse here than, say, France. Nor are they Muslim versus Christian, there aren’t that many practising Christians in England now and few “anti-Muslim” racists flaunt their own faith as a reason for hatred. The other “splits” you mention are far less severe than they have been in the recent past (or perhaps it’s the ancient past to a 21 year-old).
You have not researched the Grenfell fire. The enquiry hasn’t reported yet so you are guessing anyway who is criminally responsible. Furthermore when it was decided to improve the tower the authorities were required by EU regulation to install insulation in compliance with EU standards (Directive 2010/31/EU). These standards emphasised thermal insulation over fire resistance which seems to have been the cause of such rapid fire spreading. The UK’s Building Research Establishment (BRE) proposed a better standard (BS4814) having discovered this problem but it could not be implemented because it had become an EU “competence” by then (China has taken up the British Standard). You probably didn’t know this, it hasn’t been widely reported. You can check the facts and respective standards in the first section here: https://eurout.net/2017/07/07/shorties-10/
(Distributed Culpability). Acid attacks appear to be the weapon of choice for rival gang wars, or are you implying a racist motive? The far right is more evident in France, Austria, Hungary, Poland and even Germany than in the UK.
You have misled your readers with inaccurate detail and extremely opinionated commentary. It is clear I disagree with your position but you will find it hard to dispute most ot the facts I have given you. Let me know if find a mistake, I’m always willing to learn, I hope you are.
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First of all Mr. Nick Toemen, I want to say that. I follow, share and like your articles recently a lot and I agree with the majority of the points you highlight in them. As far as for your comment on this article, I respect that and I will take some of the factors into account.
I agree with your statement referring to the tensions with the Muslims is not that severe as compared to the rest of the Europe. I also agree with you that the other “splits” are also far less severe. However, I did not indicate that this a major or a severe problem. I indicated it as a developing social crisis and there will be clashes and if you don’t believe me you can follow on these stories. For example the acid attacks cult group’s activities will further rise in the upcoming just a few months, but then I agree with you even if such developments do happen. They cannot trigger a major social crisis, unless these issues are to be converted into a political issue. Due to the government in cahos such issues can be converted into a political one and then a major social crisis develops.
As for the Brexit negotiations, the UK is not being serious or clear about that. Did you not just watch Theresa May’s recent speech from Italy on this issue? As for the UK’s letter for the issue on triggering Article 50, the EU pressured the UK government to send that letter. Since that article cannot be triggered unless the leaving nation will show its consent (or demand) to leave or the EU members purpose a joint resolution to exclude a country from the EU. Since it would have been embarrassing for the UK to be excluded by the means of a joint resolution of the EU member states, they send the letter.
As for the UK’s economy. I totally disagree with you on that. The UK’s economy is headed for a double dip recession and it is in turmoil. As for Russia in the first quarter its economy grew 0.5% and the recent data for the second quarter this year shows 2.5%. The yuan was expected to crash by the mainstream media, but actually yuan’s value has increased. Eurasia continues to develop at even a faster rate now. Last month, I moved from Lahore, Punjab to the Gilgit Baltistan Region. At this moment I am living at the gateway of CPEC, in Gilgit city. I can see the massive infrastructure, universities, advance hospitals and technology being developed in front of my own eyes over here not just read from a news article.
Russia and China are soon here to launch a gold backed currency on the One Belt One Road and other Eurasian projects. Moreover, bitcoin, gold, yuan and even ruble is getting popular in Eurasia and the dollar is being neglected. People here are studying Mandarin, Russian and other Eurasian languages. As English is being cornered. This area has already become a different world or like a different planet or simply a post Western dominated world.
When the next crisis will struck (soon). Russia and China are not vulnerable to that, instead it will further strentgen these two powers. The only one who are vulnerable to the next financial crisis, is the western world, especially the United States of America, as it will end the unipolar era once and for all. Unfortunately the British pro Atlantist political elite (whether left or right) have aligned themselves with the Americans. Hence, UK will equally suffer with the fall of the USA and the petrodollar. Unless the UK dramatically shifts its policies towards a more Eurasian oriented one. Which I think will never happen.
I would suggest you to visit places like Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan and even where I am living. So much is happening that it is just impossible for me to tell even in a whole long article. It is something that can only be witnessed to be understood.
When I was moving in Gilgit I thought of an unstable area with threats of terrorism. Gilgit city is one of the most peaceful cities on this planet at the moment with an extremely low crime rate. Imagine just one murder case in the last 7 years. The whole Gilgit – Baltistan area is under the Pakistan Army’s control and is even more secure than the main stream cities of Pakistan such as Lahore and Karachi.
Finally, Mr Nick Tommen I respect your point of view, but I have a different one when it comes to UK and Eurasia. UK is headed towards a massive disaster, a government in chaos, the public politically divided than ever and economy headed for a recession rather than a recovery. The multi polar order is already established and the only thing left is the fall of the unipolar world. Sadly, I don’t see a mighty UK in the multi polar world. As the UK will get hit like much of the Western nations of the unipolar era. If you do not believe me, I have nothing to hide you can visit Eurasian countries and see everything by your own self on the ground. I even invite you sir to my city Gilgit, a place thriving with peace, development, commerce, education and innovation you will definitely enjoy a long drive on the Karakorum Highway!
Thanks for your detailed answer Muhammad, I appreciate you taking the time and trouble. Also I find I agree with much that you have now written concerning the likely development of world economic power, the centre of gravity does seem to be moving. Your answer sets the UK in a broader context than your original article, whether it can succeed in this changed environment depends greatly on the choices it makes and I would agree that an indecisive approach to Brexit is a serious danger. Remaining in a declining EU is also a danger, there is no status quo position. The UK is not uniquely vulnerable.
My arguments for leaving the EU are argued at length elsewhere so I won’t repeat them. I would just point out that the EU and its major national leaders are determined to make an example of the UK to discourage others. This is an implicit recognition that the merits of the project are not self-evident to a great many of its citizens, otherwise it could adopt a position of benign neglect rather than actively trying to make our situation worse. There is a fair chance that the EU will collapse unless it can solve the intrinsic problems with its main currency and stop enforcing “more Europe” against increasing resistance.